The three horizon model gives is a deeper understanding of the significance of what we usually call short, medium and long term futures. The model is based on the observation that businesses, technologies, political policies and even whole civilizations exhibit life-cycles of initiation, growth, peak performance, decline and even death. These cycles can viewed as waves of change in which a dominant form is eventually overtaken and displaced by another.

These displacements may be gradual but, in times of rapid change, they can be quite abrupt. For example, we speak of disruptive technologies that suddenly reach a tipping point and take over the technological ecosystem. However, a closer look reveals that these waves are also going on simultaneously on different scales, changing their place in the foreground or background over time. Yet this is not easy to see unless we appreciate the qualitative differences between the waves. Understanding is further helped by recognising the value of thinking in terms of three waves at a time.

A good way to picture this is to switch from the analogy of waves and think instead in terms of horizons. Imagine you are looking at a view from the plains near the coast towards inland mountains. The first horizon is where the plains end and the foothills rise of the second horizon rise. Yet behind them are the high mountains of the third horizon. The plains may be agricultural, the foothills wooded and the mountains without trees and with glaciers. Each horizon is qualitatively different. The analogy here is that we need to be able to see different qualities that distinguish the short, medium and long term as more significant than the amount of time. In some industries, the three horizons may cover a span of ten years; in others it may span half a century. In other words qualitative or structural change is more significant for strategy than span of time.

THE
THREE
HORIZON
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FUTURES
THINKING