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PRINCIPLES OF SCENARIO DESIGN

In the early stages of the development of scenario planning methods, the generation of scenarios was carried out by a small number of talented people supported by significant environmental scanning. As the methodology has become clearer, the methods of constructing scenarios have become more accessible to groups of managers. Providing the need for unexpected components is respected, it is possible to engage larger numbers of people in the process through skilled facilitation.

The broad stages of such a process tend to be:

    1 identify people who will contribute a wide range of perspectives
    2 either interview them or have a workshop (or both) to elicit their views on many dimensions
        of the future
    3 cluster or group these views into connected patterns
    4 map these on a time line leaving scope for turning points
    5 convert these time lines into coherent stories
    6 cross check for internal consistency and significant difference
    7 illustrate with enrichment material and data
    8 compose key diagrams that help to visualise interconnections.

The use of visual support techniques such as hexagon mapping are recommended.